Your Rate

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why are people locking in 30 year rates if they can get a lower 5 year arm and refinance?

Basically the same as picking red or black on a roulette wheel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
+1. Look at the news, folks

-1. Look at the facts, folks.

Anonymous wrote: -- inflation is still crazy

The United States inflation rate? The United States... of America?

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:



Not "still crazy". Not great... but definitely not "still crazy".

and we went from people predicting six rate cuts this year to people saying maybe we'll see a rate cut in March 2025. Just to repeat, from six to zero this year. Two years from now, people will probably be bragging about their 7% rates when we've gotten above 10%.

?

Have you considered getting your information from reputable sources rather than entertainment programs designed to provoke emotion?

When I see posts like yours I wonder if it's some kind of Biden Administration "disinformation SWAT" team deployed to combat online messaging that isn't favoring Biden. There is something too familiar and persistent in your message style. Someone took the time and effort to neatly frame it by dissembling the items one by one to spin them differently.

Inflation may have come down but what you blatantly ignore:

1) most people are getting year to year COLA increases *below* inflation. Again. And again. I work for a major F200 and everyone received a 2.5% increase. Which is below inflation. And the same happened last year. And the year before that. The cumulative effect is that most people's *real income* has declined.

2) inflation is still much higher even with the come down compared to pre 2020 when it barely increased year to year. We had *real income gains* in the teens pre COVID and Biden.

3) official inflation statistics *do not include rent and food*. Which is a lulz moment. Housing is vastly more expensive now than it was in 2019. Monthly expenditures on housing and food is highest it's ever been and that's with real income declines.

4) last but not least, in your "disinformation" post you blatantly ignore (your own misinformation, eh!) that we were expecting up to six rate cuts this year and now that is most definitely not happening. This is serious.

There you have it in a nutshell.

You guessed it Watch-The-News. I'm totally a government operative. That is some impressive detective work. Your paranoia serves you well.

Watch-The-News is sounding so reasonable its hard to believe anyone would question his/her macroeconomic acumen.

The difference between you and me is that you're a partisan who got lost looking for the Political forum and I'm an intelligent person who knows the reality underneath all the partisan lies people tell themselves. Inflation has been stubborn and persistent for the last three-four years despite the hysterical shrieking from people like you it wasn't real, it was only transitory, and now, finally, it's nowhere "as bad." DCUM archives are littered with posts from people like you or similar so I know the tone At least there's some progress in your acceptance of what most of knew years ago while you were shouting from the top of your lungs inflation wasn't real. So forgive me (insincerely) when I don't take you seriously and think very lowly of people like you.

NP here. Multiple things can be true at the same time. For example:

Inflation has come down considerably.
According to historical measures, while higher than we (and the Fed) would like, inflation is not that bad right now.
Those historical measures are deeply flawed, and do not include significant components of the economy.
Because of the flawed methodology, statistical inflation levels do not accurately reflect what people perceive to be "inflation" according to their own experiences and pocketbooks.

So, you're both right, and you're both wrong. Congratulations, I guess.

Also, the persistent belief that the President, whomever he is, can exercise significant control over inflation, and the economy in general, is a fantasy. He can't. External factors that the President has no control over dramatically affect the inflation rate and the overall economy. That's true for Biden, it was true for Trump, and it will be true for the next president. And sometimes, those outside events (Covid, for example) are so significant that they compel the government to take measures that everyone knows will raise the inflation rate - but they have to be done anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a friend who bought in like mid/late 2020 but for got know what reason, decided to get adjustable rate mortgage. Probably the dumbest move one could have made, rather than locking in a low rate for 30 years, lock it in for 5. Not sure why he did that...

Oh my goodness. Why in god's green earth would he have done that? I can't even come up with a good hypothetical reason....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a friend who bought in like mid/late 2020 but for got know what reason, decided to get adjustable rate mortgage. Probably the dumbest move one could have made, rather than locking in a low rate for 30 years, lock it in for 5. Not sure why he did that...

Oh my goodness. Why in god's green earth would he have done that? I can't even come up with a good hypothetical reason....

Probably steered by a high-pressure lender into that product. Folks need to learn to say "no" when someone tries to sell you crap.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why are people locking in 30 year rates if they can get a lower 5 year arm and refinance?

The risk is not worth the small difference in the rate between the 30YR and the ARM (today my credit union is quoting 7.25 for 30 year and 6.375 for 5 year ARM, ie less than a 1% difference). The difference on your monthly payments won't be that large (assuming 1m around 400 per month) but the risk is massive. If rates are even higher in five years you are potentially screwed. On the flip side, if rates go down to, for example 5%, you can always refi when on fixed).

The risk just ain't worth the minor difference in payment