Some good news: Crime is down in DC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At the beginning of last year, we were still reporting crime. They often didn’t take the reports, but we were still trying. Now we don’t even bother. These numbers mean nothing.

This is exactly why stats are down. People aren’t reporting “small” crime now. So murders might be down for the moment (mostly due to colder weather), but people aren’t even bothering to report stuff like break ins, robbery or other stuff. Because they know nothing will come of it. Why bother?

This winter was warmer than last year - and these stats are comparing this time this year to this time last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:At the beginning of last year, we were still reporting crime. They often didn’t take the reports, but we were still trying. Now we don’t even bother. These numbers mean nothing.

So it's time to go back to reporting crime.

[Anonymous]

People are just resistant to facts. If you were so upset about the stats last year you cannot refuse to acknowledge the progress (although still early) this year. The idea that this is a reporting issue is weak even for property crimes, but makes no sense for violent crimes. Murder is not something that doesn't get reported and the drops in assaults with a deadly weapon are down almost exactly the same percent as murders. That certainly suggests that there is not a reporting issue there. Do you really think people don't report when their car is stolen? That is also way down this year.

Personally I don't think this has much to do with anything that DC is or is not doing. The entire country saw a major drop last year, which DC missed out on. My guess is that whatever drove crime down nationwide last year (which no one really knows) is now hitting DC. Which is a good thing!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People are just resistant to facts. If you were so upset about the stats last year you cannot refuse to acknowledge the progress (although still early) this year. The idea that this is a reporting issue is weak even for property crimes, but makes no sense for violent crimes. Murder is not something that doesn't get reported and the drops in assaults with a deadly weapon are down almost exactly the same percent as murders. That certainly suggests that there is not a reporting issue there. Do you really think people don't report when their car is stolen? That is also way down this year.

Personally I don't think this has much to do with anything that DC is or is not doing. The entire country saw a major drop last year, which DC missed out on. My guess is that whatever drove crime down nationwide last year (which no one really knows) is now hitting DC. Which is a good thing!

Nothing drove crime down nationwide (but not DC) last year. It had just risen so high in 2022, that criminals couldn’t keep up the pace. That could be what is happening in DC now, by this is like getting excited when gas shoots two dollars before coming down 15 cents.

You’re right that auto theft and murder are the two crimes where the city can’t fudge to stats, so it’s good to see those lower than last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People are just resistant to facts. If you were so upset about the stats last year you cannot refuse to acknowledge the progress (although still early) this year. The idea that this is a reporting issue is weak even for property crimes, but makes no sense for violent crimes. Murder is not something that doesn't get reported and the drops in assaults with a deadly weapon are down almost exactly the same percent as murders. That certainly suggests that there is not a reporting issue there. Do you really think people don't report when their car is stolen? That is also way down this year.

Personally I don't think this has much to do with anything that DC is or is not doing. The entire country saw a major drop last year, which DC missed out on. My guess is that whatever drove crime down nationwide last year (which no one really knows) is now hitting DC. Which is a good thing!

Resistant to facts??

The “facts” you refer to were compiled by the MPD.

Forgive me for doubting their veracity. I’ve lived here a long time.

[Anonymous]

See here for bogus stats:

https://www.nbcwashington.com/investigations/acting-dc-police-chief-claims-30-crime-drop-stats-dont-back-it-up/3423794/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have some oceanfront land in Loudoun county I'd like to sell you.

+10000
Can't belive anyone believes this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People are just resistant to facts. If you were so upset about the stats last year you cannot refuse to acknowledge the progress (although still early) this year. The idea that this is a reporting issue is weak even for property crimes, but makes no sense for violent crimes. Murder is not something that doesn't get reported and the drops in assaults with a deadly weapon are down almost exactly the same percent as murders. That certainly suggests that there is not a reporting issue there. Do you really think people don't report when their car is stolen? That is also way down this year.

Personally I don't think this has much to do with anything that DC is or is not doing. The entire country saw a major drop last year, which DC missed out on. My guess is that whatever drove crime down nationwide last year (which no one really knows) is now hitting DC. Which is a good thing!

Nothing drove crime down nationwide (but not DC) last year. It had just risen so high in 2022, that criminals couldn’t keep up the pace. That could be what is happening in DC now, by this is like getting excited when gas shoots two dollars before coming down 15 cents.

You’re right that auto theft and murder are the two crimes where the city can’t fudge to stats, so it’s good to see those lower than last year.

That's an interesting take. Crime numbers didn't go down last year nationwide. They just went up less. So far less that they went up negatively.

[Anonymous]

Positive change. Hopefully becomes a trend.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People are just resistant to facts. If you were so upset about the stats last year you cannot refuse to acknowledge the progress (although still early) this year. The idea that this is a reporting issue is weak even for property crimes, but makes no sense for violent crimes. Murder is not something that doesn't get reported and the drops in assaults with a deadly weapon are down almost exactly the same percent as murders. That certainly suggests that there is not a reporting issue there. Do you really think people don't report when their car is stolen? That is also way down this year.

Personally I don't think this has much to do with anything that DC is or is not doing. The entire country saw a major drop last year, which DC missed out on. My guess is that whatever drove crime down nationwide last year (which no one really knows) is now hitting DC. Which is a good thing!

Nothing drove crime down nationwide (but not DC) last year. It had just risen so high in 2022, that criminals couldn’t keep up the pace. That could be what is happening in DC now, by this is like getting excited when gas shoots two dollars before coming down 15 cents.

You’re right that auto theft and murder are the two crimes where the city can’t fudge to stats, so it’s good to see those lower than last year.

That's an interesting take. Crime numbers didn't go down last year nationwide. They just went up less. So far less that they went up negatively.

They remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic. So not as bad, but nothing to be excited about.

[Anonymous]

Resistant to facts??

The “facts” you refer to were compiled by the MPD.

Forgive me for doubting their veracity. I’ve lived here a long time.

For those who make this point, could you explain (1) why you think MPD reported the increases in crime that you are complaining about but is somehow now able to reduce the murder, assault, car theft etc. numbers as much as it wants? and (2) how you think MPD is not reporting the right total of MURDERS?

Also, it is right to say that things have gone up since 2019, but to say that the criminals can't keep up makes no sense. The rate has been much higher in the past since I have been in DC. Why can't you just accept that the murder and crime rates vary from year to year and that they were up in 2023 and now for the limited data at the start of this year are down. Do you also dispute that crime nationwide was down in the US (as reflected in all the data from both red and blue jurisdictions)?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Resistant to facts??

The “facts” you refer to were compiled by the MPD.

Forgive me for doubting their veracity. I’ve lived here a long time.

For those who make this point, could you explain (1) why you think MPD reported the increases in crime that you are complaining about but is somehow now able to reduce the murder, assault, car theft etc. numbers as much as it wants? and (2) how you think MPD is not reporting the right total of MURDERS?

Also, it is right to say that things have gone up since 2019, but to say that the criminals can't keep up makes no sense. The rate has been much higher in the past since I have been in DC. Why can't you just accept that the murder and crime rates vary from year to year and that they were up in 2023 and now for the limited data at the start of this year are down. Do you also dispute that crime nationwide was down in the US (as reflected in all the data from both red and blue jurisdictions)?

I think you’re trying to argue with people who are talking out of their @$$.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Resistant to facts??

The “facts” you refer to were compiled by the MPD.

Forgive me for doubting their veracity. I’ve lived here a long time.

For those who make this point, could you explain (1) why you think MPD reported the increases in crime that you are complaining about but is somehow now able to reduce the murder, assault, car theft etc. numbers as much as it wants? and (2) how you think MPD is not reporting the right total of MURDERS?

Also, it is right to say that things have gone up since 2019, but to say that the criminals can't keep up makes no sense. The rate has been much higher in the past since I have been in DC. Why can't you just accept that the murder and crime rates vary from year to year and that they were up in 2023 and now for the limited data at the start of this year are down. Do you also dispute that crime nationwide was down in the US (as reflected in all the data from both red and blue jurisdictions)?

I accept that they are down from the bloodbath that was 2023. Until we get to the level of the 10s, DC remains an extremely violent and dangerous city.

[Anonymous]

Getting carjacked with my kids in the car is a huge fear. This just happened in broad daylight. Thank goodness the kid was able to escape.

The reality is still pretty darn frightening.

[Anonymous]

We’re 75 days into the year and there have been more than 100 carjackings. Last year they skyrocketed, so they’re down now but by the end of next month we’ll reach a higher total than we used to have all year.