The question of distraction

[Anonymous]

It has been fairly standard throughout our political history that people withdraw from political life when their personal issues become a distraction from public needs. In Palin's case, far from withdrawal, McCain chose her knowing that her personal life would be a distraction. Aside from the snarky view that he wanted the distraction, is there a more sympathetic explanation of why he chose Palin over other possibilities? Was she the only one who was acceptable both to him and the base? Or did he see her as so stellar that the distraction was an acceptable sacrifice?

BTW, just as the Iraqi war has had costs that many of us feel outweigh any benefits that may come if it does succeed, this distraction has the cost that it has led to the kind of hurtful arguments that we have seen among ourselves, not to mention the cost to her family.

Just to be clear, I am asking this as a serious question, not as a platform to either bash or extol McCain and/or Palin.

[Anonymous]

It seems to me that the media and perhaps the public are fueling the distraction elements of the Palin story. As an Obama supporter and, still, an HRC supporter, I can say with sincerity that I don't think McCain chose Palin as a deliberate distraction. I think the reasons he chose her are simple:

- He knew the polls showing him virtually tied with Obama were an artifact and that everything favors Obama.
- He knew he needed a running mate who would materially change the game for him.
- Obama chose Biden, leaving McCain with a clear opening to choose:
- A woman, to capitalize on resentment over HRC not being chosen
- An outsider, to capitalize on Obama picking one of the longest-serving senators in Washington
- He needed to energize his base, since conservatives view(ed) him with disdain.
- He needed to appeal to working-class and middle-class voters.
- He wanted to reclaim his maverick image, which has been tarnished in recent months. Even if you don't believe Palin is a maverick herself, you have to admit she's not a Washington insider and isn't the running mate the establishment would have had him choose.

When you add those things up, I think the pick makes perfect political sense. The distractions will fade but McCain, who had trouble filling the venue for his VP announcement, is now routinely pulling crowds of 15,000 with Palin by his side. That's good, from his point of view. And the distractions really will fade as the press fully vets Palin, and the focus will once again be on Obama, McCain, and their policies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
- He knew the polls showing him virtually tied with Obama were an artifact and that everything favors Obama.

Wish I could be that confident of this. What makes you say that they were an artifact?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
- He knew the polls showing him virtually tied with Obama were an artifact and that everything favors Obama.

Wish I could be that confident of this. What makes you say that they were an artifact?

Well, I'm no mindreader and the only thing predictable this time is unpredictability. And I know Charles Krauthammer doesn't agree with me; he thought McCain should play it safe. But if you look at the overall mood of the country as framed by the polls showing that voters hugely prefer Democrats to Republicans right now, and if you consider the fact that the Iraq war and Bush are so unpopular and the economy is, to put it politely, in the toilet, the country's mood strongly favors electing a Democratic president. Several columnists I know feel this way and one I don't know but respect hugely, David Broder, feels this way. IMO, Obama was down a bit in the polls because of his overseas trip. I realize the campaign thought it necessary, but I think it was a mistake. (Interesting that Obama is not using any of the footage or photos from that trip in his ads.) While he was gone, McCain hammered him for taking a premature victory lap. That took a toll on Obama in the polling and it allowed McCain to subtly reframe the election from being a referendum on Bush and the GOP to being a referendum on Obama. That's not a good framework for Obama. Nonetheless, the overall indicators still suggested that the country wants to see a Democratic president. I think McCain thought he had no chance unless he did something to completely turn all the conventional wisdom on its ear. And boy did he do that.

I am still hopeful about the election but I think Obama is being hurt by the fact that voting him in will mean a Democratic congress and a Democratic president. A lot of Americans don't want to see that. I'm not sure what Palin will do to the equation. Just because a vice presidential pick is usually inconsequential doesn't mean that will be true this time. I'm an HRC fan and I genuinely thought if Obama picked her he would come out of the DNC riding so high McCain wouldn't be able to do anything about it. I really don't know what will happen now. Here's an op-ed from Willie Brown, a major wise man in California political circles. It made me a bit nervous:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/07/BALU12OCMV.DTL&type=printable

[Anonymous]

Thanks for writing back and sharing that. I hope you're right in your analysis. I just keep worrying about the Bradley effect so I won't believe it's in the bag unless he is 20 or 30 points ahead.

Yep, it's hard to know the effect Palin will have. But I have to say I just watched the two videos on YouTube of her talk at her church in Wasilla and I'm wondering how she will deal with the spotlight. She comes across in the video as quite folksy and down to earth so that could be in her favor. On the other hand, she's folksy and down to earth about some pretty extreme religious views (the pipeline won't come unless the people's heart is right with God so people should pray for everyone to get together and make it happen).

On the third hand, she didn't seem all that articulate in the church video. Her speech at the RNC was a real zinger but it was scripted and rehearsed. In debates or press conferences, will she come across more as the person in the church or the person at the RNC? I can't see the church persona being very effective in discussing national security. But of course that may make no difference to people who like the folksy governor at the church.

Will be interesting to see what happens!

Here are the links for Parts One and Two of the video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QG1vPYbRB7k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k84m2orSOaM

[Anonymous]

C-SPAN is going to re-air her 2006 gubernatorial debate at 6:30 tonight. That will provide a look at her debating skills as they stood two years ago. As far as the debate goes, Biden's problem is always. . . Biden. I expect the moderators will ask her about Troopergate and some other issues but now, as we see, Biden has his own possible ethics problems coming up so those will be on the table too. It will be interesting to see if the debate focuses on that stuff or on policy. As far as press avails go, so much will depend on how the media handle things. It's all very interesting, that's for sure.

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the tip! It will be fascinating to see how she does!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for the tip! It will be fascinating to see how she does!

It will be for sure.

I should have said in my prior post that I can think of only one time that a VP candidate has swung the presidential election, and that's in 1960 with Kennedy/Johnson. I thought if Obama picked HRC this year that would mark the second time in history it happened, simply because I thought that was such a strong ticket. I guess if Palin swings the election it will be the second time in history, just a different VP candidate than I had thought would do it. What a fascinating election cycle this is!

[Anonymous]

OP, I think part of the premise of your question is wrong: It's pretty clear that McCain didn't vet her very well before announcing her as his pick. McCain is as surprised by all of her distractions as the rest of us which, in my humble opinion, suggests what a poor decision maker he is. Whether the distractions will ultimately help or hurt, I'm not sure.