Is crime affect DC's real estate market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I got this from our realtor who we used many years ago:

https://vimeo.com/938357764

Notice he says MoCo and PG are a seller's market with only 1.5 months of inventory, and for DC it's different -- only areas like AU Park and Cleveland Park are similar, and the rest is a buyer's market with 5 months of inventory.

Could the crime situation in DC be affecting this? Just seems odd that these areas are just a few miles apart, but so much difference in the market dynamics.

Yes.

DP, well, yes and no. I think there's also a post-pandemic impact where people are still looking for more space as they settle into more hybrid work schedules that didn't used to exist prior to the pandemic. People want office space, if two spouses are working from home, it's tough with two people on meetings at the same time. So larger homes, SFHs, which are more abundant in AU Park, Cleveland park, are staying appealing, smaller rowhomes are less appealing now.

But also, yes, crime has been exhausting. We've dealt with both higher crime in our neck of the woods, as well as feeling squeezed due to lacking office space.

On Capitol Hill, the rowhomes closest to the Capitol building are still selling like hotcakes. Once you get past 10-12 blocks East of the Capitol, rowhouses are sitting. Crime increases the farther out you go (around 17th and Independence SE particularly has had a horrible spate of shootings in the past 6 months or so).

Thank you so much for your bold action on crime, Charles Allen!

[Anonymous]

Yes. But there are people who own in dc and still don’t want to admit it yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Real estate agents are ALWAYS telling people "it's a good time to buy" "it's a good time to sell". That's how they make money!

To be fair they’ve been right for a very long time.

Not really -- they were wrong from about 2007 to 2019, when prices were basically flat. So wrong for 12 years, then right for 5. I guess you could go down slightly on the 12 years, because if you bought a couple years before, you'd be doing well also. But really, real estate barely beats inflation in the past 20 years in the DMV. So you'd really be better off NOT following their advice more than you would be following it.

At the end of the day, buy or sell when it's the right time for you, but don't follow advice from people who stand to gain from doing as many sales transactions as possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Of course. Cross Georgia Ave and it’s an entirely different world.

Of course. Once you cross Georgia Ave and enter into the dilapidated ghetto that is Takoma Park, your life is basically forfeit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

THANK YOU now o don’t have to compose my own post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

It's not just condos, it's rowhouses that are sitting if you are paying attention. I've watched real estate in my neck of Hill East and have never seen rowhouses sit for so long. Currently, my specific neighborhood has more houses than I've ever seen simultaneously for sale in the 15 years I've lived there and have watched every real estate listing, and they are sitting for weeks and sometimes months.

DP to add, live in a higher crime area and yes it impacted us moving. I guess people are helicopter parents if they don't like listening to gunshots while sitting in their living room or have people murdered within a block of their house? Hill East has seen a really horrible slate of drive by shootings this year with people literally having to drop to the ground with bullets flying.

"Hill East" is a recently made up name to confuse people into thinking it's a desirable area. It has always been infested with crime. Slapping fancy names on these places seems to be fooling lots of people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes. But there are people who own in dc and still don’t want to admit it yet.

THIS!!! These people who refuse to admit there's a big problem are the ones allowing the politicians to avoid doing their jobs.

[Anonymous]

we live in the burbs but I can't help but to think/worry that over time if people are abandoning dc that will have a ripple effect outward. like the value of being in close proximity of a city that you don't want to go to isn't worth the cost of buying in a close in suburb.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:we live in the burbs but I can't help but to think/worry that over time if people are abandoning dc that will have a ripple effect outward. like the value of being in close proximity of a city that you don't want to go to isn't worth the cost of buying in a close in suburb.

You’re nuts. There’s not enough homes for the existing population of the DC metro area, let alone the growth that is slated to take place over the next 20+ years. We are short nearly a decade of home construction.

Prices will not collapse in DC; there’s not enough supply to meet demand. Prices in DC may not grow as quickly as close in suburbs. We have already seen that in Beltway suburbs in MD and NovA in the past 3 years.

But the doomsayers will be wrong. WFH is going to be only 3 days/week max for federal govt once everything shakes out. Management will be in office 4 days per week. Any jobs in finance or RE require 4 days/week in office minimum. Consulting and Big 3 accounting want you in client offices to strengthen the business relationship.

You’re nuts if you have a white collar job and are buying far out homes with the expectation you will only be in the office 1-2 days/week. Good luck.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:we live in the burbs but I can't help but to think/worry that over time if people are abandoning dc that will have a ripple effect outward. like the value of being in close proximity of a city that you don't want to go to isn't worth the cost of buying in a close in suburb.

You’re nuts. There’s not enough homes for the existing population of the DC metro area, let alone the growth that is slated to take place over the next 20+ years. We are short nearly a decade of home construction.

Prices will not collapse in DC; there’s not enough supply to meet demand. Prices in DC may not grow as quickly as close in suburbs. We have already seen that in Beltway suburbs in MD and NovA in the past 3 years.

But the doomsayers will be wrong. WFH is going to be only 3 days/week max for federal govt once everything shakes out. Management will be in office 4 days per week. Any jobs in finance or RE require 4 days/week in office minimum. Consulting and Big 3 accounting want you in client offices to strengthen the business relationship.

You’re nuts if you have a white collar job and are buying far out homes with the expectation you will only be in the office 1-2 days/week. Good luck.

3 days a week in the office makes it quite easy to buy a far out suburban home as someone who used to do shift work that was three twelve hr shifts a week. Most staff at my urban hospital live in far off burbs but it's just not a big deal when you arrive at work by 630/7a 3 days a week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:we live in the burbs but I can't help but to think/worry that over time if people are abandoning dc that will have a ripple effect outward. like the value of being in close proximity of a city that you don't want to go to isn't worth the cost of buying in a close in suburb.

You’re nuts. There’s not enough homes for the existing population of the DC metro area, let alone the growth that is slated to take place over the next 20+ years. We are short nearly a decade of home construction.

Prices will not collapse in DC; there’s not enough supply to meet demand. Prices in DC may not grow as quickly as close in suburbs. We have already seen that in Beltway suburbs in MD and NovA in the past 3 years.

But the doomsayers will be wrong. WFH is going to be only 3 days/week max for federal govt once everything shakes out. Management will be in office 4 days per week. Any jobs in finance or RE require 4 days/week in office minimum. Consulting and Big 3 accounting want you in client offices to strengthen the business relationship.

You’re nuts if you have a white collar job and are buying far out homes with the expectation you will only be in the office 1-2 days/week. Good luck.

3 days a week in the office makes it quite easy to buy a far out suburban home as someone who used to do shift work that was three twelve hr shifts a week. Most staff at my urban hospital live in far off burbs but it's just not a big deal when you arrive at work by 630/7a 3 days a week.

DP to add I know people in senior leadership roles/management in various industries and it seems they settled on permanent 3 days a week in office, not 4. Not everyone with a white collar job works in government in DC.

3 vs 4 is a tipping point and companies that are successful with allowing 3 WFH days will be more desirable workplaces. It makes a significant difference in quality of life.

[Anonymous]

Arlington agent here. I have seen an uptick in people moving from The Wharf area. It hasn't developed the vibe people thought it would and a little too unsavory for many.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Condos are a disaster. Yes. But the detached home market is also far looser than the suburbs.

Condos are not a disaster and not selling at a loss (I suppose it might if it’s an immediate flip). I know because I’m on the market and looking at listing history.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Condos are a disaster. Yes. But the detached home market is also far looser than the suburbs.

Condos are not a disaster and not selling at a loss (I suppose it might if it’s an immediate flip). I know because I’m on the market and looking at listing history.

They are a disaster, they don't hold their value adjusting for inflation and the HOAs are incredibly high as a % of the property value (1-3+%). You are better off renting than buying a condo. You never truly own it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Condos are a disaster. Yes. But the detached home market is also far looser than the suburbs.

Condos are not a disaster and not selling at a loss (I suppose it might if it’s an immediate flip). I know because I’m on the market and looking at listing history.

They are a disaster from a price appreciation perspective. If you don’t mind riding the depreciation wave down there is nothing inherently wrong with them as a place to live. Except for all the know problems with communal living.