How much will Biden lose by?

[Anonymous]

Trump tried having a "responsible adult" as a VP and that worked out just fine. At least until he showed his true loyalty to the constitution.

Everyone will be wondering about the next VP choice. Unlike other presidential candidates who choose a VP who could replace him at a moments notice it is painfully clear that DJT does not want a VP who could eclipse him. No matter who is selected we all know that person will always, always, always be the Robin to his Batman.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

And yet any sane person can see how spectacularly unfit Trump is for office. He has also declined, especially mentally (unlike Biden who might be more arthritic but is still cognitively sharp). Who knows what whackadoodle he'll put on his ticket, especially now that Noem has imploded her chances by revealing she once murdered a puppy out of spite. So yes, if it's a choice between an arthritic but mentally stable old guy who is surrounded by scores of competent people and has more willing to serve the nation and a spiraling, out of control grandpa who has pushed away everyone but the most extremist supporters who might be willing to serve in his administration, a-la drunken madman Steve Bannon, I would say that any objective sane person would decide to save the country by voting for the guy whose joints are stiff but who won't burn down our democracy.

Thanks for sharing, Kamala.

Yes, as Biden said tonight, one difference between him and Trump is that Biden's VP actually endorses him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

And yet any sane person can see how spectacularly unfit Trump is for office. He has also declined, especially mentally (unlike Biden who might be more arthritic but is still cognitively sharp). Who knows what whackadoodle he'll put on his ticket, especially now that Noem has imploded her chances by revealing she once murdered a puppy out of spite. So yes, if it's a choice between an arthritic but mentally stable old guy who is surrounded by scores of competent people and has more willing to serve the nation and a spiraling, out of control grandpa who has pushed away everyone but the most extremist supporters who might be willing to serve in his administration, a-la drunken madman Steve Bannon, I would say that any objective sane person would decide to save the country by voting for the guy whose joints are stiff but who won't burn down our democracy.

Thanks for sharing, Kamala.

Yes, as Biden said tonight, one difference between him and Trump is that Biden's VP actually endorses him.

[Anonymous]

And, yet, Biden is now losing in all 7 swing states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

This statement stands out to me the most.

Can you seriously not understand why Biden has the lowest approval ratings in history?

You need to meet people outside your bubble.

That's why we poll a nationally representative sample of Americans. What we don't understand is why they are dropping after GOOD news comes out about Biden, particularly on the economy. The trend is just baffling to me and many others. Not saying the economy is perfect, but his numbers are way way worse than we could imagine, even getting to Trump-lows when we were in the middle of a pandemic and so many people died.

I appreciate your feedback.

Can you describe your method of polling? A lot of people on DCUM repeatedly say people do not answer unknown numbers (and therefore are not polled).

Is this valid?

Yes, it is valid. I prefer sampling frames using traditional Random Digit Dialing methods with cell phone component added to the frames.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

This statement stands out to me the most.

Can you seriously not understand why Biden has the lowest approval ratings in history?

You need to meet people outside your bubble.

That's why we poll a nationally representative sample of Americans. What we don't understand is why they are dropping after GOOD news comes out about Biden, particularly on the economy. The trend is just baffling to me and many others. Not saying the economy is perfect, but his numbers are way way worse than we could imagine, even getting to Trump-lows when we were in the middle of a pandemic and so many people died.

I appreciate your feedback.

Can you describe your method of polling? A lot of people on DCUM repeatedly say people do not answer unknown numbers (and therefore are not polled).

Is this valid?

Yes, it is valid. I prefer sampling frames using traditional Random Digit Dialing methods with cell phone component added to the frames.

Add me to the list of people who have stopped answering these calls. I see people having their movements tracked already. And now they want me to answer questions about a guy whose lawyers are arguing that the president could have political opponents taken out by Seal Tram 6.

Yea. No. I'm not giving them even more information.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

VPs shouldn't have to be a determining factor. We have two likely major party nominees that are extraordinarily weak as candidates to the lead the country until 2029. That is the problem we should be focusing on so not to have it repeated in four years. Harris is no more an asset or liability than any other VP we've had in modern history. Let's not put the blame of the 2024 POTUS election debacle on her.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

VPs shouldn't have to be a determining factor. We have two likely major party nominees that are extraordinarily weak as candidates to the lead the country until 2029. That is the problem we should be focusing on so not to have it repeated in four years. Harris is no more an asset or liability than any other VP we've had in modern history. Let's not put the blame of the 2024 POTUS election debacle on her.

No, the problem we should be focusing on is that one of political parties has been taken over by a compromised malignant narcissist who is close to sundowning and the only person who comes close to beating him is the incumbent president. Get rid of the compromised guy who wants to be a dictator and everything else falls into place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

This statement stands out to me the most.

Can you seriously not understand why Biden has the lowest approval ratings in history?

You need to meet people outside your bubble.

That's why we poll a nationally representative sample of Americans. What we don't understand is why they are dropping after GOOD news comes out about Biden, particularly on the economy. The trend is just baffling to me and many others. Not saying the economy is perfect, but his numbers are way way worse than we could imagine, even getting to Trump-lows when we were in the middle of a pandemic and so many people died.

Sounds like you and those around have some very fundamental assumptions that are misguided. AKA you’re models are very, very broken. Your rationalizations here adds credence to my view, in case you didn’t notice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

VPs shouldn't have to be a determining factor. We have two likely major party nominees that are extraordinarily weak as candidates to the lead the country until 2029. That is the problem we should be focusing on so not to have it repeated in four years. Harris is no more an asset or liability than any other VP we've had in modern history. Let's not put the blame of the 2024 POTUS election debacle on her.

No, the problem we should be focusing on is that one of political parties has been taken over by a compromised malignant narcissist who is close to sundowning and the only person who comes close to beating him is the incumbent president. Get rid of the compromised guy who wants to be a dictator and everything else falls into place.

Giving Trump even a fraction of the ‘credit’ for our problems shows serious delusion. The delusions of the Democrats are why they struggle to defeat/defang ANYONE in a meaningful way. But for Democratic in$ider$, the ineffectuality is the point: it keeps the gravy trains coming or, and this possibility might be even worse, it is their habit after recent decades and they can’t even see the challenge to their own interests, let alone those of their constituents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

VPs shouldn't have to be a determining factor. We have two likely major party nominees that are extraordinarily weak as candidates to the lead the country until 2029. That is the problem we should be focusing on so not to have it repeated in four years. Harris is no more an asset or liability than any other VP we've had in modern history. Let's not put the blame of the 2024 POTUS election debacle on her.

No, the problem we should be focusing on is that one of political parties has been taken over by a compromised malignant narcissist who is close to sundowning and the only person who comes close to beating him is the incumbent president. Get rid of the compromised guy who wants to be a dictator and everything else falls into place.

Giving Trump even a fraction of the ‘credit’ for our problems shows serious delusion. The delusions of the Democrats are why they struggle to defeat/defang ANYONE in a meaningful way. But for Democratic in$ider$, the ineffectuality is the point: it keeps the gravy trains coming or, and this possibility might be even worse, it is their habit after recent decades and they can’t even see the challenge to their own interests, let alone those of their constituents.

The democrats have won basically every meaningful political race since 2018.

Maybe your analysis is the one that is flawed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

VPs shouldn't have to be a determining factor. We have two likely major party nominees that are extraordinarily weak as candidates to the lead the country until 2029. That is the problem we should be focusing on so not to have it repeated in four years. Harris is no more an asset or liability than any other VP we've had in modern history. Let's not put the blame of the 2024 POTUS election debacle on her.

No, the problem we should be focusing on is that one of political parties has been taken over by a compromised malignant narcissist who is close to sundowning and the only person who comes close to beating him is the incumbent president. Get rid of the compromised guy who wants to be a dictator and everything else falls into place.

Giving Trump even a fraction of the ‘credit’ for our problems shows serious delusion. The delusions of the Democrats are why they struggle to defeat/defang ANYONE in a meaningful way. But for Democratic in$ider$, the ineffectuality is the point: it keeps the gravy trains coming or, and this possibility might be even worse, it is their habit after recent decades and they can’t even see the challenge to their own interests, let alone those of their constituents.

The democrats have won basically every meaningful political race since 2018.

Maybe your analysis is the one that is flawed?

That’s why Trump, the guy who gave you your biggest heart attacks, is about to take your bacon…again!

[Anonymous]

Doesn’t matter who wins in November. A record number of Americans will reject the outcome. Political and social chaos will ensue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

Sure. YouGov's 2020 poll of likely and registered voters for the Economist between Oct 31 and Nov 2 had Biden up 9-10 points. In 2020, the vote difference was 4.5% This is after well-known problems in 2016! We're not picking up a noticeable percent of people who could sway the election. Add in the wildcard of RFK Jr. and this ~4.5 (or higher) could make things worse.

DP. Maybe I’m a bit slow but I don’t understand how this answers the question. Why are current polls under reporting Trump voters and a class of independents?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Look at the vote difference point she makes.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

Sure. YouGov's 2020 poll of likely and registered voters for the Economist between Oct 31 and Nov 2 had Biden up 9-10 points. In 2020, the vote difference was 4.5% This is after well-known problems in 2016! We're not picking up a noticeable percent of people who could sway the election. Add in the wildcard of RFK Jr. and this ~4.5 (or higher) could make things worse.

DP. Maybe I’m a bit slow but I don’t understand how this answers the question. Why are current polls under reporting Trump voters and a class of independents?