How much will Biden lose by?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The professional protestor class is firing up students across the country. They will be out in force at the Democratic convention. How Biden handles that distraction will go a long way in deterring if he wins or loses in November.

Any idea what that pays?

Mainly in rubles

DCUM at its most senile.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The professional protestor class is firing up students across the country. They will be out in force at the Democratic convention. How Biden handles that distraction will go a long way in deterring if he wins or loses in November.

Any idea what that pays?

At a synagogue in Jersey they are awarding land by the acre in Gaza. 1 acre per protest infiltrated. Beachfront real estate if you can claim an antisemitism shout or crime.

Then the professional protester class sounds like it’s against the students and supports the Israeli government.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He’s lost the entire youth vote. Doesnt seem bothered by that at all.
Half if the black vote (and I am a black genx’er) are also gone.

All because of his cowtailing to Israel
People are horrified over Gaza.

He’s done

All the youth vote? Hyperbole doesn’t make the case for you. Gaza isn’t an issue that will register at the polls in six months. You’re naive to think it will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He’s lost the entire youth vote. Doesnt seem bothered by that at all.
Half if the black vote (and I am a black genx’er) are also gone.

All because of his cowtailing to Israel
People are horrified over Gaza.

He’s done

All the youth vote? Hyperbole doesn’t make the case for you. Gaza isn’t an issue that will register at the polls in six months. You’re naive to think it will.

Wishful thinking. Killing off interest in growing demographics is a pretty stupid strategy. Especially when the people who support the status quo of mindless support of Israel are themselves a dying demographic.

[Anonymous]

I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

Sure. YouGov's 2020 poll of likely and registered voters for the Economist between Oct 31 and Nov 2 had Biden up 9-10 points. In 2020, the vote difference was 4.5% This is after well-known problems in 2016! We're not picking up a noticeable percent of people who could sway the election. Add in the wildcard of RFK Jr. and this ~4.5 (or higher) could make things worse.

[Anonymous]

Again, for those willfully ignoring reality (this includes Genocide Joe himself ). Gaza has put off enough D’s ans I’s (especially in need to win swing states) to shift it all.

All Biden had to do is grow some balls and actually check Bibi and stop gifting arms and BILLIONS of dollars but that ship has passed 4 months ago.

The fact of the matter is a lot of liberals have come to realize no one is coming to save us. The facade of the D’s being “the good guys” has crumbled with all of the civilian deaths the last 6 months. People are seriously adrift and hopeless. No one belives Biden will do anything but take AIPAC money and give lip service to actual D taxpayers.

The groundswell of enthusiasm in 2020 to prevent a Trump second term has evaporated. There will be no record poll attendance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Again, for those willfully ignoring reality (this includes Genocide Joe himself ). Gaza has put off enough D’s ans I’s (especially in need to win swing states) to shift it all.

All Biden had to do is grow some balls and actually check Bibi and stop gifting arms and BILLIONS of dollars but that ship has passed 4 months ago.

The fact of the matter is a lot of liberals have come to realize no one is coming to save us. The facade of the D’s being “the good guys” has crumbled with all of the civilian deaths the last 6 months. People are seriously adrift and hopeless. No one belives Biden will do anything but take AIPAC money and give lip service to actual D taxpayers.

The groundswell of enthusiasm in 2020 to prevent a Trump second term has evaporated. There will be no record poll attendance.

Yeah no. Special elections have had large turn out even since Oct 7
Gaza ranks 13 on voters lists of priorities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Again, for those willfully ignoring reality (this includes Genocide Joe himself ). Gaza has put off enough D’s ans I’s (especially in need to win swing states) to shift it all.

All Biden had to do is grow some balls and actually check Bibi and stop gifting arms and BILLIONS of dollars but that ship has passed 4 months ago.

The fact of the matter is a lot of liberals have come to realize no one is coming to save us. The facade of the D’s being “the good guys” has crumbled with all of the civilian deaths the last 6 months. People are seriously adrift and hopeless. No one belives Biden will do anything but take AIPAC money and give lip service to actual D taxpayers.

The groundswell of enthusiasm in 2020 to prevent a Trump second term has evaporated. There will be no record poll attendance.

Yeah no. Special elections have had large turn out even since Oct 7
Gaza ranks 13 on voters lists of priorities.

You're right, but it could sway a small percentage. Crime will sway another small percentage. Inflation a larger percentage. Something else will hit the fan and that will sway some people too. It can add up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

Sure. YouGov's 2020 poll of likely and registered voters for the Economist between Oct 31 and Nov 2 had Biden up 9-10 points. In 2020, the vote difference was 4.5% This is after well-known problems in 2016! We're not picking up a noticeable percent of people who could sway the election. Add in the wildcard of RFK Jr. and this ~4.5 (or higher) could make things worse.

Add in the fact that this election will be decided in 5-7 swing states where a few thousand votes make all the difference and it's a definite problem. Biden has never been a generally popular politician - think of all his presidential runs that died in Iowa. He's president today because he was Obama's VP and he presented himself as a caretaker while the country moved on from the chaos of the Trump years.

But he has no natural base. He's very old and would be 86 if reelected, which no one thinks is a good idea for a president. The shine of Obama has worn off and black folks are increasingly lukewarm to Biden. Young people are always unreliable and will likely not bother voting for a candidate that generates no enthusiasm. And progressives have boarded the crazy train and will likely turn the DNC convention into a sh#tshow over Israel. Throw in the Kennedy vote - he's drawing 9 percent presently in Michigan - and things are not looking great for Biden.

His only upside is Trump. Biden can only win if the election is all about Trump. But if Republicans had nominated Haley or anyone sane under the age of 60, it would be a Reagan era landslide.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Again, for those willfully ignoring reality (this includes Genocide Joe himself ). Gaza has put off enough D’s ans I’s (especially in need to win swing states) to shift it all.

All Biden had to do is grow some balls and actually check Bibi and stop gifting arms and BILLIONS of dollars but that ship has passed 4 months ago.

The fact of the matter is a lot of liberals have come to realize no one is coming to save us. The facade of the D’s being “the good guys” has crumbled with all of the civilian deaths the last 6 months. People are seriously adrift and hopeless. No one belives Biden will do anything but take AIPAC money and give lip service to actual D taxpayers.

The groundswell of enthusiasm in 2020 to prevent a Trump second term has evaporated. There will be no record poll attendance.

Yeah no. Special elections have had large turn out even since Oct 7
Gaza ranks 13 on voters lists of priorities.

You're right, but it could sway a small percentage. Crime will sway another small percentage. Inflation a larger percentage. Something else will hit the fan and that will sway some people too. It can add up.

Crime
Inflation
Border

[Anonymous]

To the pollster: what impact is the chaos on college campuses to Biden?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:To the pollster: what impact is the chaos on college campuses to Biden?

Hard to tell. It could peter away. If it spreads, it could feed into Biden's law and order vulnerability.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

This statement stands out to me the most.

Can you seriously not understand why Biden has the lowest approval ratings in history?

You need to meet people outside your bubble.