Is crime affect DC's real estate market?

[Anonymous]

I got this from our realtor who we used many years ago:

https://vimeo.com/938357764

Notice he says MoCo and PG are a seller's market with only 1.5 months of inventory, and for DC it's different -- only areas like AU Park and Cleveland Park are similar, and the rest is a buyer's market with 5 months of inventory.

Could the crime situation in DC be affecting this? Just seems odd that these areas are just a few miles apart, but so much difference in the market dynamics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I got this from our realtor who we used many years ago:

https://vimeo.com/938357764

Notice he says MoCo and PG are a seller's market with only 1.5 months of inventory, and for DC it's different -- only areas like AU Park and Cleveland Park are similar, and the rest is a buyer's market with 5 months of inventory.

Could the crime situation in DC be affecting this? Just seems odd that these areas are just a few miles apart, but so much difference in the market dynamics.

Yes.

[Anonymous]

we spoke to a real estate agent in DC recently - its more interest rates than crime slowing things down

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I got this from our realtor who we used many years ago:

https://vimeo.com/938357764

Notice he says MoCo and PG are a seller's market with only 1.5 months of inventory, and for DC it's different -- only areas like AU Park and Cleveland Park are similar, and the rest is a buyer's market with 5 months of inventory.

Could the crime situation in DC be affecting this? Just seems odd that these areas are just a few miles apart, but so much difference in the market dynamics.

Yes.

DP, well, yes and no. I think there's also a post-pandemic impact where people are still looking for more space as they settle into more hybrid work schedules that didn't used to exist prior to the pandemic. People want office space, if two spouses are working from home, it's tough with two people on meetings at the same time. So larger homes, SFHs, which are more abundant in AU Park, Cleveland park, are staying appealing, smaller rowhomes are less appealing now.

But also, yes, crime has been exhausting. We've dealt with both higher crime in our neck of the woods, as well as feeling squeezed due to lacking office space.

On Capitol Hill, the rowhomes closest to the Capitol building are still selling like hotcakes. Once you get past 10-12 blocks East of the Capitol, rowhouses are sitting. Crime increases the farther out you go (around 17th and Independence SE particularly has had a horrible spate of shootings in the past 6 months or so).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:we spoke to a real estate agent in DC recently - its more interest rates than crime slowing things down

That doesn't make sense though.... why are interest rates only impacting DC, but not impacting people buying SFHs in NOVA as far out as Fairfax and beyond? It's not just interest rates. In fact, it's become cheaper to buy in parts of DC than it used to be, but offering well over asking on a run of the mill 2000 sq ft home in Fairfax.

[Anonymous]

Interest rates.

[Anonymous]

I think it's more WFH/hybrid. There was pretty much no amount of money you could pay me pre-pandemic to have a long commute. I'd squeeze into anything in the city to avoid it. Now we need office space for two and my spouse only has to commute once or twice a week (I'm remote). The further out burbs look more appealing now, DC less so.

[Anonymous]

Crime, interest rates, and continuation of remote work.

[Anonymous]

For us, it's the interest rates and the incredibly high prices. I live near Takoma Park, MD on the DC side. My house is worth about $1M. To move up in size and neighborhood, I would need to spend $1.8M. That same house used to be $1.2M. It's insane. I just don't think the houses going for $2.5M are worth it. I can afford it, but that's not how I want to spend my money at this age, just to move up a little.

[Anonymous]

Of course. Cross Georgia Ave and it’s an entirely different world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Crime, interest rates, and continuation of remote work.

Are interest rates different for houses in DC vs houses nextdoor in MD?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Crime, interest rates, and continuation of remote work.

Are interest rates different for houses in DC vs houses nextdoor in MD?

No, which is why it's not the interest rates.

[Anonymous]

I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

Added reports: https://www.mcenearney.com/market-in-a-minute

[Anonymous]

It's affected areas like Shaw, CapHill, Hill East, H Street, etc. It's especially affected the condo market in those areas, where people are selling at a loss. Even for spacious duplex condos in renovated rowhouses.

However, anything west of 16th Street NW is still HOT. And the market in Cleveland Park, AU Park, Tenleytown, CCDC, Georgetown, Burleith, GP, Palisades keeps marching upward. We live in one of the aforementioned neighborhoods and have zero crime issues, new families keep buying any house that goes on the market.

The effects of crime are not evenly distributed in DC.