HQ2 in CC?!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Amazon's director of econ development just tweeted this:

Mike Grella
@MikeGrella
"Memo to the genius leaking info about Crystal City, VA as #HQ2 selection. You’re not doing Crystal City, VA any favors. And stop treating the NDA you signed like a used napkin."

What does he mean by not doing CC any favours? As in they'd pull the offer?

*Bezos tosses the Post aside, throws his hands up, and slumps back into his leather chair, a stunned look on his face.*. “Call the Board in, it’s over. A random millenial leaked some information about Crystal city to my newspaper. The dream is dead. What do we know about Atlanta?”

This is a nice writing prompt for a short story.

Here's what I have so far:

Aidan woke up naturally at 5 a.m. due to a combination of excitement from a hot real estate tip and the clocks turning back for Daylight Savings Time.

He dressed quickly and headed to the kitchen to brew his morning cup of coffee. The beans were roasted by artisan shop down the block. He ground the beans by hand, weighed them on a scale and brewed the coffee using the pour over method. He cupped the mug in his hand and looked out his window at Q Street NW. Trees with orange and yellow leaves lined the street. Neighbors left their houses and trudged toward the Metro. Admiration for himself welled up inside and he let it out with a proud sigh.

It was a combination of skill and luck, but mostly skill, in his opinion, that brought him to this point. He was working as a IT consultant for the federal government in 2008 when the housing market in Washington, D.C., stumbled in the economic crisis. He received a six-figure monetary gift from his parents and bought a condo in the Shaw neighborhood. Now, he was a millionaire, on paper, and that money slowly burned a hole in his pocket as he waited for the next opportunity. He’d know it when he saw it.

He hopped into his Mini Cooper. “Hey, Siri, direct me to Starbucks in Crystal City.” He had an appointment with Aiden, a fraternity brother and real estate agent with Redfin. “Hey, Siri, text Aiden, ‘On my way, bro.’”

This is hysterical!!!

[Anonymous]

Wait, I thought people were so sure it was coming to job-destroyinf, taxy, nanny state, social experiment Maryland!? What gives?! Bezos must be nuts.

[Anonymous]

So its not coming to taxy, nanny state, job-destroying Maryland!?!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No millennials want to work in Ashburn. It was obvious from the start that if “DC” was the choice it would be close to downtown.

Do you really think they care where the job is located? Everyone is speculating. Crystal City doesn't make a lot of sense as its not that accessible to those who live in MD, which is a big issue at Amazon right now as they don't have office space in MD and the commute to MD/VA is not easy so they don't get a lot of folks from MD. I hope it goes somewhere else. I'd love to move somewhere other than Seattle due to the rain.

why do you think crystal city is not accessible to md? in fact, it is very accessible to pg county, such as hyattsville, along the yellow and blue line metro. with amazon lands here, the close in pg county will boom big time. forget about montgomery county, it is down hill.

Have you done the commute? It easily is 1-2 hours depending on traffic. There is only one bridge to cross to get to VA and it gets back up. In a snow storm the commute can be 3-4 hours. Some of us live here already (yes, agree its gone downhill) and aren't moving as most people don't stay at jobs more than a few years. Hyattsville to VA on metro could easily be 60-90 minutes depending on when the trains run and connections plus driving to the station.

That's if you drive. I used to do the commute along the Green/Yellow line from College Park to CC. It was not too bad, under 60 minutes, and you aren't driving so you can read or work if you need to on your way in. If I didn't live in the region yet, I might not choose to move this far out if I could afford closer in. But I see no reason why potential employees who already own homes in that area of PG would have to move. CC is only three additional stops past DC (L'Enfant). Not a big hardship for people who have been commuting into DC via Metro to go three more stops.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Amazon's director of econ development just tweeted this:

Mike Grella
@MikeGrella
"Memo to the genius leaking info about Crystal City, VA as #HQ2 selection. You’re not doing Crystal City, VA any favors. And stop treating the NDA you signed like a used napkin."

What does he mean by not doing CC any favours? As in they'd pull the offer?

Well, well... new WSJ scoop says it's down to 3 cities:

CC
Dallas
New York City

if this is true (haven't seen the article) then it's definitely CC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Breaking news: Amazon announced that they are forgoing the established infrastructure of Crystal City and will build from scratch a 50K person campus along the GW parkway. “Beauty and iconic views are what we want,” Bezos stated. Bezos is in talks with government officials to exercise eminent domain over that land. Talks are expected to last until 2100.

I just spit out my cereal...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No millennials want to work in Ashburn. It was obvious from the start that if “DC” was the choice it would be close to downtown.

Do you really think they care where the job is located? Everyone is speculating. Crystal City doesn't make a lot of sense as its not that accessible to those who live in MD, which is a big issue at Amazon right now as they don't have office space in MD and the commute to MD/VA is not easy so they don't get a lot of folks from MD. I hope it goes somewhere else. I'd love to move somewhere other than Seattle due to the rain.

80% of millennials live in suburbs and exurbs so certainly they would be just fine with Ashburn and its brand new housing stock.

Idk why everyone acts like Crystal City is such a terrible commute if you don't live in Arlington or Old Town. Anyone near Blue or Yellow Line in VA has an easy ride in, VRE has a stop in Crystal City, PRTC commuter busses have routes to Crystal City. If it comes to Crystal City I imagine a lot of potential employees would also live along these routes (ie: Springfield, FFX County Alexandria, Lorton, Burke, and to a lesser extent Woodbridge and Manassas.)

Agree! All I've heard from years is how Rockville and places in MD are just SO close to the downtown, and how it's SO easy to commute in from there. So you can get all the way from Shady Grove to L'Enfant Plaza ...but that extra four stops is a total soulsuck? Crystal City is closer to the heart of DC than well ...most of DC itself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No millennials want to work in Ashburn. It was obvious from the start that if “DC” was the choice it would be close to downtown.

Do you really think they care where the job is located? Everyone is speculating. Crystal City doesn't make a lot of sense as its not that accessible to those who live in MD, which is a big issue at Amazon right now as they don't have office space in MD and the commute to MD/VA is not easy so they don't get a lot of folks from MD. I hope it goes somewhere else. I'd love to move somewhere other than Seattle due to the rain.

80% of millennials live in suburbs and exurbs so certainly they would be just fine with Ashburn and its brand new housing stock.

Idk why everyone acts like Crystal City is such a terrible commute if you don't live in Arlington or Old Town. Anyone near Blue or Yellow Line in VA has an easy ride in, VRE has a stop in Crystal City, PRTC commuter busses have routes to Crystal City. If it comes to Crystal City I imagine a lot of potential employees would also live along these routes (ie: Springfield, FFX County Alexandria, Lorton, Burke, and to a lesser extent Woodbridge and Manassas.)

Agree! All I've heard from years is how Rockville and places in MD are just SO close to the downtown, and how it's SO easy to commute in from there. So you can get all the way from Shady Grove to L'Enfant Plaza ...but that extra four stops is a total soulsuck? Crystal City is closer to the heart of DC than well ...most of DC itself.

Actually, transferring is kind of a soul suck.

[Anonymous]

When will they announce?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When will they announce?

Wednesday.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When will they announce?

Wednesday.

Not until next week. Let the nation digest the midterms for awhile.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:While there’s always a chance that they’re going to do something else, it was always going to be in Northern Virginia. CC for the millenials, but if they need more space they always have all the stuff connected to everything they already do in the Dulles tech corridor.

This sounds more like a “leak” designed to get some other city to make more concessions.

What millennial, or even what human, would pick Crystal City as somewhere they want to be?

You don't need to live in Crystal City obviously to have a decent commute there. There are two metro lines going through there, anywhere along these lines would work. Young demographics can live in DC proper very easily and families have their pick of NOVA neighborhoods with good schools. Traffic probably will be heavier in some parts.

[Anonymous]

HQ2 won't do anything major to housing in the DC metro area.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/amazon-effect/

"When put in the context of the Metro region’s history, the “Amazon effect” is an unimpressive flare in the region’s chronic housing crisis.

Since 2000, the employment in the Metro region[1] increased by 581,100, an equivalent of nearly 12 Amazons. This period includes two recessions, one very severe. Averaged over these ups and downs, the region has added 34,000 employees each year since 2000—80 percent of a full Amazon. In seven of these seventeen years, including the last three, we absorbed one full Amazon or more in a single year with job growth above 50,000. And in 2009—the year of the Great Recession—we lost one full Amazon.[2]

In 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of employees in the Washington Metro Area was 3.12 million. The most recent cooperative forecast from COG projects that employment will reach 4.05 million by 2030.[3] (If Amazon moves in 2019, that will be the end of the roughly 10-year ramp-up they are planning.) The estimated increase of 934,700 employees is the equivalent of 18 Amazons.
Seen in this context, the 50,000 workers Amazon plans to bring over the next ten or so years is a marginal change in employment in the Metro region."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
HQ2 won't do anything major to housing in the DC metro area.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/amazon-effect/

"When put in the context of the Metro region’s history, the “Amazon effect” is an unimpressive flare in the region’s chronic housing crisis.

Since 2000, the employment in the Metro region[1] increased by 581,100, an equivalent of nearly 12 Amazons. This period includes two recessions, one very severe. Averaged over these ups and downs, the region has added 34,000 employees each year since 2000—80 percent of a full Amazon. In seven of these seventeen years, including the last three, we absorbed one full Amazon or more in a single year with job growth above 50,000. And in 2009—the year of the Great Recession—we lost one full Amazon.[2]

In 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of employees in the Washington Metro Area was 3.12 million. The most recent cooperative forecast from COG projects that employment will reach 4.05 million by 2030.[3] (If Amazon moves in 2019, that will be the end of the roughly 10-year ramp-up they are planning.) The estimated increase of 934,700 employees is the equivalent of 18 Amazons.
Seen in this context, the 50,000 workers Amazon plans to bring over the next ten or so years is a marginal change in employment in the Metro region."

In terms of the number of workers, I agree. But it's not all the only thing employer like Amazon brings into the area. It's also another industry, tech industry, different types of jobs. When more of tech talent moves into the area, it also attracts other employers and springs up new companies in the sector that the area isn't known for specifically. It's not about 50K people, it's what can come on their footsteps that will matter long term. Immediately DC area definitely can absorb all these people with existing housing stock and given compactness of the area, people can live all over based on their individual preferences - urban lifestyle and dining/entertainment proximity, apartment or SFH living, family living and schools, etc. You can easily commute to CC from DC proper and most residential parts of NOVA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
HQ2 won't do anything major to housing in the DC metro area.

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/amazon-effect/

"When put in the context of the Metro region’s history, the “Amazon effect” is an unimpressive flare in the region’s chronic housing crisis.

Since 2000, the employment in the Metro region[1] increased by 581,100, an equivalent of nearly 12 Amazons. This period includes two recessions, one very severe. Averaged over these ups and downs, the region has added 34,000 employees each year since 2000—80 percent of a full Amazon. In seven of these seventeen years, including the last three, we absorbed one full Amazon or more in a single year with job growth above 50,000. And in 2009—the year of the Great Recession—we lost one full Amazon.[2]

In 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of employees in the Washington Metro Area was 3.12 million. The most recent cooperative forecast from COG projects that employment will reach 4.05 million by 2030.[3] (If Amazon moves in 2019, that will be the end of the roughly 10-year ramp-up they are planning.) The estimated increase of 934,700 employees is the equivalent of 18 Amazons.
Seen in this context, the 50,000 workers Amazon plans to bring over the next ten or so years is a marginal change in employment in the Metro region."

Exactly, every owner of a 1mil shit shack in the area who thinks it will fetch 2 mil in 2 years is delusional. People will be spread all over, and most likely Amazon will hire locals, who already have their housing covered. One of the important criteria for their selection is the abundance of professional talent and DC already has this. I think it will be good for the RE in the area overall, but it won't skyrocket overnight, it will be gradual and take many years like it happened in Seattle.