Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In 1997, some friends and I had a stock "club" where we pretended to put money in stocks and watched what they did. I had $2000 in pretend money invested in Apple, which was deep in the depths of its John Scully days at the time.
Had I put $2000 of real money in AAPL, it would be worth about $3 million today.
Oops.
Had you invested in 2007 when Iphone came out, you still would have made money.
I think every person at the presentation bought apple stock the next day.
Total BS but illustrative of why picking individual stocks is a fool’s errand.
It was NOT at all obvious in 2007 that the iPhone would become the winner in the cell phone market or even remain a viable product. (Bezos is a genius too – anyone remember the Amazon Fire phone??)
There’s a famous clip on YouTube of Steve Ballmer mocking the iPhone when it first came out, saying that it was too expensive for the general public and would never appeal to business customers because it didn’t have a keyboard. Ballmer was an insider’s insider in the tech industry and is himself now one of the 10 wealthiest people on Earth, and yet he had no idea what would happen in the cell phone market.
But this is what idiots like the PP do: look at a clear winner now, rewrite history to imagine that this was always obvious, and use that as a justification to buy individual stocks, imagining they know more than billionaire hedge fund managers and similar market participants who determine prices.
Outside of very true rare exceptions such as Warren Buffett, anyone who beats the market long-term by individual stock picking is L-U-C-K-Y!